A House Divided: The LDP’s Historic Loss in the Japanese Elections
- Antong Lu
- 1 day ago
- 3 min read
In front of a checkered board of candidates and prefectures, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba sits alone. The red rosettes behind him represent winning LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) candidates in the recent elections, and there are less of them on there than he wanted. In fact, it is a historical loss for both his party, and within Japanese politics as a whole.
For the first time in Japan’s history, the LDP failed to achieve a governing majority in either the lower House of Representatives, or the upper House of Councillors. Ishiba’s LDP-Komeito coalition lost 19 seats from the election on the 20th of July, boldly confirming Japan’s mass discontent at a party that has dominated the nation for almost a century. Yet, while this marks a historic blow against the LDP, who have formed more than 90 percent of Japan’s government since the party’s formation in 1955, it is a blow that does not come off as surprising.
The Crumbling LDP
For Ishiba and the LDP, this is a stark reminder of the party’s growing unpopularity over the past couple of years. While the Upper House elections are generally insignificant given their limited role in legislation when compared to the lower House of Representatives, this election has become a clear painting of the current political landscape. In the short term, voter frustration over Japan’s rising inflation and the majorly disliked consumption tax were central to the recent election results. In particular, Japan’s rice shortage has become a vocal turning point. Domestic prices for rice nearly doubled within the year, and Ishiba’s government controversially responded by increasing rice imports, sparking public anxiety over food security. These harsh conditions are in stark contrast to Ishiba, whose campaign as a fiscal conservative advocating tax hikes and spending cuts have only popularly positioned him as tone-deaf to the economic hardships many households are experiencing.
Yet this vivid unpopularity isn’t just a result of wider economic angst, but are protests against the LDP’s perceived untrustworthiness. A slew of high profile scandals from Ishiba handing out ¥100,000 gift vouchers to new MPs, to a major slush fund scandal in 2023-2024 that decimated Ishiba’s predecessor, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and collapsed major factions within the LDP, have all contributed to a growing sense among the Japanese public that the LDP has become increasingly corrupt, out-of-touch, and self-serving. This has combined with the party’s declining rural voter base and the consistent economic stagnation of the ‘Lost Decades’ post-1990 to present a waning, decrepit image of the LDP and its place in Japanese politics.
The Winners
Broadly speaking, the elections were a significant win for Japan’s conservative bloc. In particular, the Sanseito, a far-right populist party, gained 13 new seats and 12.6% of the national vote to become the third-largest party in the Upper House. Their leader, former Self-Defence force reservist Sohei Kamiya, has pledged an anti-immigration platform of “Japanese First” against a “silent invasion of foreigners” that picked up significant traction with young male and lower-income voters dissatisfied with the mainstream institutions. Similarly, the nationalist centre-right Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) won 17 seats under a campaign to increase take-home pay. Collectively, this represents the LDP’s weakening grip over its conservative supporters, who are instead now flocking en masse to alternative political voices that offer more nationalist or anti-establishment sentiments.
The Future and its Uncertainties
While Ishiba has stated his intent to continue on as PM, the door remains open for senior LDP members to contest his leadership. A leadership spill will almost certainly continue to weaken an already fracturing LDP and push voters further towards alternative movements such as the ultranationalists. For now, while Ishiba and the LDP remain in government, the future of Japanese politics seems uncertain.
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