America First – At a Crossroads

Image Credits: Adam Gray/Getty Images/AFP

Donald Trump's intervention in Iran marks the latest chapter in his increasingly assertive foreign policy. It follows the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January, territorial claims over Canada and Greenland throughout 2025, and the imposition of “reciprocal tariffs” last February, all of which have come to be seen as a departure from “America First”, a promise widely understood as a commitment to isolationism and an end to America's so-called “forever wars”. Whilst each of these actions taken alone might be justifiable, when pieced together, they form a pattern that is difficult to reconcile with “America First”.

The consequences of forsaking that promise seems to be now closing in. Mr Trump cannot afford this war to continue, let alone escalate into ground intervention without openly betraying his promise of being the “President of Peace. In any other political climate, Mr Trump might be able to manage the tension. However, the Republicans face a seemingly imminent blue wave at the 2026 Midterms, where Democrats have already overperformed in elections since the 2024 Presidential race. Polymarket and Kalshi predict the Democrats to win the House and a Senate tossup. Compounding this is the economic fallout from rising fuel prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, further adding pressure to a worsening cost of living crisis, which would mark yet another broken promise. Even if Mr Trump were to find a swift resolution, there has been irreputable damage done which is has been the cost of discarding his policy platform that brought him to power.

Many reporters contend that Mr Trump entered this conflict without a clear exit strategy, pointing to his erratic press conferences and contradictory messaging, and it is difficult to argue otherwise. This week alone, he threatened to destroy Iran's power plants and bridges if Tehran failed to meet his terms, while simultaneously insisting that the United States could fight wars “forever” thanks to its “virtually unlimited” arsenal. It is hard to imagine this is the vision of “America First” Mr Trump once promised yet is now what MAGA must choose to either defend or disown.

Whatever ceasefire diplomacy may be taking place behind the scenes, domestic sentiment has shifted. Not just by those neutral or oppose him, but now a growing proportion of his once supporters. Voters that identify as independents have swung over 20 points against Mr Trump in his approval ratings, contributing to record low approval ratings of any US President this century.

Mr Trump and MAGA now sit at an uncomfortable crossroads; either insist that “America First” remains intact despite mounting evidence to the contrary or abandon the notion that he is a “President of Peace”. Whilst he may find a way to claim victory, such as his two-week ceasefire announced on Wednesday, the impending 2026 Midterms along with growing distain of American foreign policy at home and abroad, undoubtedly means that neither path leads anywhere comfortable. The doctrine that paved the way for a MAGA Presidency may be the very road that leads MAGA out of it.