How does the Ukraine crisis affect you?
It’s a question that may make you hesitate – Ukraine is so far away, grounded in geopolitics far from our own political reality. What may come to mind is fuel – petrol prices have risen dramatically. But the Ukraine crisis is bigger than just an increase in your petrol prices – it is a signal of increasing instability in Eastern Europe, strategic losses by the West, and a worsening refugee crisis.
A Signal of the West’s Declining Influence?
Ukraine is of great strategic importance to both Russia and the West. By both sides it is considered a buffer between their respective influences. The country was originally a part of the Soviet Union and many native Russians still reside in Ukraine, so the Kremlin considers the state within its sphere of influence. For Europe and the US, Ukraine remaining neutral means they can counter Russia’s influence in Eastern Europe. With the invasion of Ukraine, the West’s influence in the region has been challenged. Success on behalf of Russia would result in their sphere of influence in Eastern Europe increasing significantly. In contrast, it would mark a decline in the West’s control over the region and lead to changes in global power relations that could affect future events on the world stage for decades to come.
A Home Front Victory for Authoritarian Rule?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered immense anti-war sentiment in the country, a sentiment that Putin has sought to censor. Since the beginning of the war, there have been protests in over 140 Russian cities. In response, Putin’s regime has arrested 13,000 people, including journalists. Men, women, and children have been charged in large numbers. At one prison in Bratayevo, Russian women reported being arrested and then threatened with rape if they did not comply with the official pro-war message. The continued stifling of the peoples’ voice in Russia increasingly appears like a perverse victory for Putin’s authoritarian rule on the home front. If he succeeds in censoring his people, does this mean authoritarian rule has prevailed? Even in a largely democratic-leaning world? If yes, this could spell out enormous changes for global politics.
The Worst Refugee Crisis?
As of mid-March, 6.5 million people have emigrated from Ukraine to escape the violence in an emigration dubbed the ‘worst refugee crisis since World War II’ (Reuters). Many of these refugees are women and children, as conscription is enforced on Ukrainian men aged 18-60. Predominantly, almost 1.3 million refugees have emigrated to Poland. Countries in the European Union have also pledged to allow Ukrainians the right to stay and work in the bloc for up to three years without a visa. These allowances signal a global community coming together to support Ukraine. However, there are questions over how long the EU will be able to sustain these refugees. Already, Poland has asked the bloc for more resources to help look after the growing number of refugees flowing into its country. This begs the question – how will the EU continue to accommodate Ukrainian refugees? Where will these refugees go beyond Europe?
The Ukraine crisis may seem distant and far-off but in truth, its outcome could decide the nature of global politics for decades to come. Evidently, when we discuss the war, fuel prices aren’t as important as we think.
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