How rebuilding Syria offers a chance for regional peace and why Europe should take it

Leader of new Syrian administration, Ahmed al Sharaa in Damascus, Syria on December 22, 2024. [Arda Küçükkaya – Anadolu Agency]

Syria

For nearly the entire last decade and a half, the Syrian people have been caught in a brutal civil war, during which the Russian and Iranian-backed Bashar al-Assad regime fought against various rebel groups, including Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda-backed militias. The war only ended in December 2024 when a group led by the now president, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, launched an offensive that caused the Assad regime’s collapse and Assad’s exile to Moscow. Syria under the Assad dynasty, which lasted 53 years, was a brutal, tyrannical dictatorship; freedom of speech was nonexistent, and political opponents and dissidents were imprisoned or killed. During the civil war, the Assad regime committed blatant human rights violations by killing over 300000 civilians, including nearly 30000 children, and using chemical weapons on civilian populations, all of which is illegal under international law. Even though the new government has shown itself to be more liberal by giving citizenship to Kurds, allowing for freedom of religion and expression, guaranteeing the safety of ethnic minorities, and integrating most militia fighters into the army, Syrians still suffer. Nearly all infrastructure has been destroyed, and wheat production has decreased by 40% due to a recent drought, leaving over 3 million people facing hunger and over half the country facing food insecurity. Furthermore, 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, and 70% are in urgent need of humanitarian aid. Since 2011, Syria's GDP has shrunk by nearly 85%, with reconstruction costs estimated at $350 billion, over ten times its current GDP. It is clear that Syria needs help, and the European Union (EU) should provide it. If not only for humanitarian reasons, rebuilding Syria offers several benefits for the EU; it could help the bloc diversify its energy sources, increase regional influence to prevent conflict, promote stability and democracy, establish a long-term partnership in a landscape of shifting alliances, and open up opportunities for lucrative trade deals, such as Syria’s large phosphate reserves, which are critical for agriculture. Better yet for the EU, Syria’s relations with Russia, because it refuses to extradite Assad, Iran, because it was a key supporter of the Assad regime, China, because it has not recognized the new government since Uyghur foreign fighters were appointed to the Syrian defense ministry, and Israel, because it pushed into Syria during the civil war, have all worsened.

Regional peace

Although helping Syria presents significant opportunities for regional peace and the EU, it is not the only country to do so. Lebanon, a country whose government does not fully control all of its territory due to the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah, is completely paralyzed because of deep political divisions, mainly related to Hezbollah, Israel’s ongoing attacks, and complete economic collapse. Jordan, another country in the region, suffers from having a high debt and unemployment while also struggling to maintain national stability as it accommodated over 1.5 million Syrian refugees. Egypt also finds itself precariously close to disaster, as it still depends on the Nile for over 95% of its water, while the river’s level keeps dropping. This situation is worsened by Egypt’s growing population, climate change, reduced rainfall, and Ethiopia’s upstream damming of the river. Egyptians receive only about half of the UN’s recommended daily water supply, and by 2040, the country is expected to face severe water shortages. The country’s political situation is also worsening as it deals with an economic downturn caused by the Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia in Yemen, bombing the Red Sea, lowering the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal. Furthermore, Egypt is focused on blocking Palestinians in Gaza from entering, fearing that Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which the current Egyptian government strongly opposes and has designated a terrorist group, may try to cross the border.

Partnerships

That being said, the EU should not embark on this mission alone. It should work closely with Türkiye and Saudi Arabia to raise funds for projects in the region, as these two countries have already shown themselves open to such proposals and have raised billions to rebuild Syria. Working with regional partners could also help the EU’s image across the region. Although the EU is by far the world’s largest aid donor, providing nearly 50% of the world’s aid, totaling almost $100 billion annually, China remains the most popular power in the Middle East and North Africa, even surpassing the African Union in popularity. This is despite China only giving about $7 billion in aid each year, while most of its investments are loans, not aid. The EU should prioritize infrastructure development and collaboration with regional partners to shift this perception.

Conclusion

The EU should work with Türkiye and Saudi Arabia to create an organization that helps rebuild Syria, supports the Lebanese government, provides financial aid to Jordan, and invests heavily in the construction of desalination and solar plants in Egypt. This organization should offer a legitimate alternative to both Iranian and Israeli options, while also taking political, economic, and even military action against all actors that destabilize the region. This approach benefits both donors and recipients: recipients receive critically needed aid to support their populations and governments, while donors enhance their influence in the region to promote democracy and stability by tying aid to democratic reforms in recipient countries. Additionally, they diversify their political and economic partnerships and supply chains, which the Third Gulf War has shown to be essential, and they also prevent future migration crises by stopping them before they start, removing a key policy from the far right.

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