The pursuit for ceasefire in the ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Gaza is fraught with challenges that hinder the possibility of lasting peace.
Earlier this month, hundreds of Hezbollah members were killed and wounded in a complex attack on personal technological devices. Israeli airstrikes have killed two top commanders in Beirut this week, including Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and over 600 people have died in Lebanon from Israeli air targeting of Hezbollah sites.
Currently, Israel has the upper hand militarily, and this could certainly stifle negotiations, and make it less willing to compromise on a ceasefire. However, it is unlikely that Israel can halt Hezbollah rocket fire with air strikes alone, and a ground invasion of Lebanon poses major military, political and social risks.
Approaching nearly a year of war, Israeli soldiers are still fighting Hamas in Gaza.
While there may be strong incentives for all sides to come to some agreement, it does not guarantee that this will happen. An intricate web of historical grievances, political fragmentation, regional dynamics, cycles of violence, humanitarian concerns, and distrust in mediators complicates the efforts to halt hostilities.
Historical Tensions and Distrust
Decades of conflict have entrenched deep-seated animosities among the parties involved. The historical narrative is marked by violence, territorial disputes, and failed peace processes, leading to a pervasive atmosphere of distrust. Each side harbours grievances that shape its current stance, often resulting in a reluctance to engage in conducive dialogue. Israel’s experiences with Hezbollah’s attacks and Gaza’s rocket fire, are seeming to bolster a robust military posture, making concessions seem like a weakness.
Political Fragmentation
The political landscape in the region is highly fragmented. In Israel, differing political parties have varying approaches to the conflict, often complicating a consensus on peace initiatives. Netanyahu heads the most religious and nationalist government in Israel's history. His far-right coalition partners have warned that they might destabilise his administration if he makes significant concessions to Hamas, and they are also expected to resist any agreements with Hezbollah. Netanyahu’s finance minister said earlier this week that Israel’s northern campaign “should only end in one scenario – crushing Hezbollah and denying its ability to harm residents of the north.” In Lebanon, Hezbollah operates as both a political party and a militant group, making it difficult for the Lebanese government to negotiate without appearing to undermine its sovereignty. Lebanon’s Prime Minster, Najib Mikati, has expressed support for the ceasefire proposal, but has little power to impose or enforce an agreement on Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Palestinian territories are divided between factions like Hamas and Fatah, each with distinct ideologies and goals. This fragmentation results in divergent interests that challenge the creation of a unified front for peace talks.
Regional Dynamics
The conflict does not exist in a vacuum; it is influenced by broader regional geopolitics. Iran, which aided in the establishment of Hezbollah in the 1980s and is the source of the group’s advanced weapons, is yet to express a position on the ceasefire. While Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian took a more placatory tone than other regional leaders to the West, he held that Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon this week “cannot go unanswered.” This could support or embolden Hezbollah to take more aggressive stances, knowing they have support behind them. Regional actors often have their agendas, which complicate ceasefire negotiations and lead to an escalation rather than a resolution of conflicts.
Cycles of Violence and Retaliation
Violence begets violence, creating a vicious cycle that undermines ceasefire efforts. Each military action – whether airstrikes by Israel or rocket fire from Gaza – can provoke immediate retaliatory responses, escalating tensions further. The fear of appearing weak can deter leaders from committing to a ceasefire, as doing so might embolden their adversaries. Consequently, short-lived truces often dissolve into renewed hostilities, leaving civilians caught in the crossfire.
Humanitarian Concerns
While humanitarian issues are frequently raised in ceasefire discussions, disagreements over their management can stall negotiations. Questions about aid distribution, access for relief organisations, and the protection of civilians often become contentious. Parties may use humanitarian access as a bargaining chip, further complicating the process. The urgency of humanitarian needs can clash with political objectives, making it challenging to forge agreements that adequately address both concerns.
Distrust in Mediators
International mediators, while essential to facilitating dialogue, often face scepticism from conflicting parties. Accusations of bias can undermine the mediation process, leading to a lack of confidence in proposed terms. This distrust can result in parties hesitating to engage, fearing that the mediators will favour their opponents, thus derailing any potential for constructive negotiations.
The obstacles to achieving a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah-Gaza conflict are multifaceted and deeply rooted. Overcoming these challenges requires not only a commitment to dialogue but also a willingness to address historical grievances, regional influences, and immediate humanitarian needs. Without concerted efforts to navigate this complex landscape, the cycle of violence is likely to continue, perpetuating instability in the region and leaving countless civilians vulnerable to its consequences.
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